The bar we underwrite
01
They know something important that most people don't, and they learned it by living close to the problem, not by reading about it. Peter Thiel calls this a "secret." Mike Maples Jr. calls it a non-consensus insight that turns out to be right.
The testWhat do you believe that smart people in your industry would disagree with?
02
They don't say "we're a better X." They name a problem customers didn't know they had, and then they own that name. The Play Bigger authors call this "category design." The product is just the proof.
The testCan they explain why the problem matters without mentioning their product?
03
They see an inflection point, like a technology shift, a new rule or a change in behavior, that makes something possible now that wasn't before. Then they act as if that future has already arrived.
The testWhy now? What changed that makes this possible today and not five years ago?
04
They're certain about where things are going and flexible about how to get there. They'll change tactics, pricing or the product without giving up the core idea. Founders who are stubborn about both usually fail.
The testWhat have they changed their mind about, and what have they refused to change?
05
Early on, most people won't see what they see. Investors pass and competitors ignore it, yet an overwhelming need no one has put into words yet is already securing pilots and experiments. They keep going without needing outside approval.
The testHow did they respond when a smart person told them they were wrong?
06
They don't just sell. They explain a new way of seeing the problem, and they keep repeating it. Writing, speaking, frameworks and a shared vocabulary are part of how they win.
The testAre customers and outsiders starting to use their words?
07
A new category needs a community around it: early believers, partners, even friendly rivals who help prove the space exists. The best founders treat the whole ecosystem as part of the company.
The testWho else is better off if this category exists?
See yourself in these?
Make good trouble